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2015 Oscars Talk





0
 01.06.2016 9:26am
Thread Creator

shooter_mcgavin
Registered Member

Well Oscar Nominations are next week and I haven't given my Final Nominations predictions yet but looking at how the Awards season has turned out so far I can at least name 18  films (in order of likely hood).

1.  Spotlight
2.  Mad Max: Fury Road
3.  The Revenant
4.  The Martian
5.  The Big Short
6.  Carol  
7.  Brooklyn
8.  Room
9.  Straight Outta Compton
10. Bridge of Spies
11. Sicario
12. The Hateful Eight
13. Creed
14. Inside Out
15. Steve Jobs
16. Ex-Machina
17. Beasts of No Nation
18. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

 
That said anything beyond #10 is probably a long shot since Oscar Nominations 5 to 10 Best Picture films and I see only the first 8 getting nominated at this point.

Suffice to say the awards season has been a mess this year with nomiantions all over the place. FYI Carol would be my #2 right now if it wasn't for some recent Guild Awards Snubs (like the PGA).

But here are some storylines that has developed this Oscar Season

1. Is this Leo's Year?
Leonardo DiCaprio starts in' The Revenant
which apparently is going to do well in the Oscars. In previosu years he's lost most because of the competition, good news for Leo this year is that he has no competition. His biggest comptetitors is Michael Fassbender for Steve Jobs, which flopped at the box-office, and Bryan Cranston, who is mostly a TV Star, for Trumbo. So unless Revenant  flops in every aspect I doubt him and his movie star and over due status is going to lose to a performance of a film that flopped and a TV Star.

2. Are we seeing the seeds of another Best Picture/Best Director Split?
More often than not we have seeing a lot of Best Picture/Best Director split at the Oscars in recent years. The most recent one was the 12 Years a Slave and Gravity splitting Best Picture and Best Director in almost every awards giving body group. It does seem with the recent critics groups we are seeing a similar pattern wherein George Miller takes Best Director for Mad Max:Fury Road while Spotlight takes Best Picture. If this pattern continues we may have another split at hte Oscars.

3. Who the heck are the Frontrunners in the Female Performance Categories?
While, as mentioned, Leo is likely going to win this year and it does seem that Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies is the current frontrunner fo Best Supporting Actor there really isn't a consensus on which female perforamnce is leading and supporting categories. In the leading Brie Larson, Saroise Ronan, and Cate Blanchett all have a legit reason why they are the frontrunners. In the Supporting Rooney Mara for Carol seems like the best bet though Carol is underperforming in the guilds and category confusion (since she's actually the lead) might hurt her chances? And what about other critical darlings like Alicia VInkader for Ex Machina or Kristen Stewart for the Clouds of Slis Maria, their nominations isn't a sure thing though their critical support the last month has been very strong. 

4. What's going to happen with the Keaton and Ruffalo in Spotlight?
As mentioned Spotlight is the current frontrunner for Best Picture yet it's two male leads Michael Keaton and Mark Ruffalo have been snubbed continously.  Though many attribute this to category cofnusin since it's studio/distributor Open Road Films hasn't really done a good job in distingushing who they will place as lead and supprting. If this continues will Rachel McAdams be the only one from the film to get an Acting nomination (heck even she's not a sure thing)?



My Final Fantasy Comparo-MeterFFVI >>>>>>>> FFIV >>> FFVII, FFIX > FFX, FFXII, FFV >> FFI, II, III >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> FFXIII




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0
 01.06.2016 9:42pm


Mole
Somebody loves ya.



This is the kind of year that's so unstable, amorphous, and uncertain that making predictions seems like a foolish activity, so of course I'll do it anyway. Movies!

Best PIcture
Spotlight
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Big Short 
Room
Bridge of Spies
Inside Out
Brooklyn

Gonna go crazy and predict a snub for The Revenant, for no other reason that I think something will get snubbed in this category so it might as well be the two-and-a-half-hour nature poem.

Best Director
Ridley Scott
Tom McCarthy
Todd Haynes
George Miller
Alejandro G. Inarritu

I wouldn't have said so earlier in the year, but I think George Miller has gone from outside shot to sure thing for a nomination. I have no answers for who will win though. Really interested in seeing where the DGA goes on this. Also I'm selecting these as the most likely picks, but I'm also predicting we'll see one or two totally huge snubs. Maybe Inarritu or McCarthy, subbed in for some crazy shit like Ryan Coogler or the guy who directed Talledega Nights. It's that kind of year.

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio
Michael Fassbender
Will Smith
Eddie Redmayne
Matt Damon

The only thing we can call for certain is that this is Leo's year. He's got the narrative on his side, and more importantly, every other candidate is either relatively lightweight or totally shit the bed with critics and/or the box office.

Best Actress
Brie Larson
Saoirse Ronan
Cate Blanchett
Charlotte Rampling
Jennifer Lawrence

My prediction is that a blonde will win.

Best Supporting Actor
Mark Rylance
Sylvester Stallone
Paul Dano
Jacob Tremblay
Benicio Del Toro

This category is just fucked up -- this list could be 60% wrong and I would be in no way surprised. Elba? Bale? Shannon? Hardy? The Spotlight boys? I don't know!!

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh
Alicia Vikander
Kate Winslet
Elizabeth Banks
Rooney Mara

I'm tempted to not include Rooney Mara, only because I don't see how any sensible human being could watch Carol and believe that this is a supporting performance.  Related: I think Alicia Vikander will get in but just as easily for Ex-Machina as The Danish Girl.

Best Original Screenplay
Spotlight
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Bridge of Spies
Love and Mercy

I'm putting down Love and Mercy as a surprise pick here. It's the kind of under-the-radar flick this branch likes to throw in, including once before with Oren Moverman.

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Martian
Steve Jobs
Room
Carol
The Big Short

These... these are screenplays. Moving on.

Best Cinematography
The Revenant
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Hateful Eight
Sicario
Carol

It hit me while putting this together that this has been a great fucking year for cinematography. How insane would it be for this year to have entries shot on Alexa 65, 70mm, and 16mm??

Best Film Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road
Spotlight
The Martian
The Hateful Eight
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max almost objectively deserves to win this and if it doesn't, it'll be the only thing I'll be genuinely angry about. Then again they didn't even nominate Inception in 2010 so who the hell knows.

Other predictions: Beasts of No Nation, Trumbo, and Straight Outta Compton will get a combined total of zero nominations, Ennio Morricone will win to a standing ovation, and the words "Academy Award Winner Wiz Khalifa" will be something we all have to live with for the rest of our lives. Movies!!!!




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0
 01.06.2016 10:17pm


Catastrophe
I'm Catbug!



Maybe my Oscar knowledge isn't as hot as I thought it was, but can Ennio Morricone really get a nod for Best Original Score when it contains discarded music from The Thing's score, actual music from The Thing's score, actual music from the Exorcist II score and probably others I've missed.

Or does the category have one of those weird percentage rules?




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0
 01.07.2016 1:21am


Mole
Somebody loves ya.



The rule is that the music branch can do whatever the fuck it wants, especially when it comes to honoring insiders and shutting out outsiders.

See last year's score for Birdman, which was disqualified with an explanation that objectively made no sense.




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0
 01.07.2016 6:48am
Thread Creator (Edited on 01.07.2016 at 7:08am)

shooter_mcgavin
Registered Member

Catastrophe said:

Maybe my Oscar knowledge isn't as hot as I thought it was, but can Ennio Morricone really get a nod for Best Original Score when it contains discarded music from The Thing's score, actual music from The Thing's score, actual music from the Exorcist II score and probably others I've missed.

Or does the category have one of those weird percentage rules?

Morricone's score for Hateful Eight is Elegible for the Oscars so it's in :-)

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/the-hateful-eight-score-eligible-for-oscar-but-the-revenant-sicario-and-it-follows-miss-out-20151217

For me I am waiting for the DGA and BAFTA to get a clearer picture since right now it's pretty tough.

Also don't coount Straight Outta Compton out it seems to be doing very well in the guilds.




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0
 01.07.2016 10:43pm


Fukiyama
Sysadmin of my brain



What do you all think about Charlotte Rampling for 45 Years?




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0
 01.08.2016 4:44am
Thread Creator

shooter_mcgavin
Registered Member

Fukiyama said:

What do you all think about Charlotte Rampling for 45 Years?

I just got the movie i plan to see it this weekend or next.




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0
 01.08.2016 4:14pm


Fukiyama
Sysadmin of my brain



http://deadline.com/2015/12/oscars-2015-best-actress-predictions-jennifer-lawrence-cate-blanchett-brie-larson-1201637643/

Just wanted to post this link to something I read awhile ago on the Best Actress race, including:

Now here is where it really gets sticky. There are several deserving veteran stars, with performances of a lifetime, that could trigger the sentimental factor. Charlotte Rampling really is drumming up serious Oscar talk for her transcendent performance in 45 Years, as a woman celebrating her 45th wedding anniversary just as a dark secret from her husband’s past emerges. She won the Silver Bear at the Berlinale and is nominated in the Best Actress category at the European Film Awards. The incredible fact that Rampling never has been nominated for an Oscar probably will help her gain further traction.

But she has to deal with the situation of having so many deserving vets in the running, including two-time Oscar winner Maggie Smith, highly amusing in the true story The Lady In The Van; Blythe Danner in her first-ever leading role in the indie hit I’ll See You In My Dreams; the irresistible Lily Tomlin as the irascible title character in Grandma, looking for her second Oscar nomination 40 years after her first for Nashville; and Helen Mirren, hoping to add another Oscar to her mantle as an Austrian looking to reclaim a famous painting the Nazis stole from her family. Her film, Woman In Gold, requires some memory-jogging on the part of voters—the film opened way back in April, but remains the top independently released movie so far this year.





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0
 01.08.2016 7:43pm


Mole
Somebody loves ya.



I don't think she'll have a problem getting nominated. But I remember the last time a French veteran in an acclaimed art film went up against a young blonde ingenue, and, well: 






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0
 01.11.2016 1:12pm
Thread Creator

shooter_mcgavin
Registered Member

I think Charlotte Rampling gets in I just did my final nomiantion predictiosn and there's isn't a solid 5th nominee yet and by virture of default I think Charlotte Rampling gets the 5th slot. Its either her or Carey Mulligan and Mulligan's buzz has already died down.

While she got snubbed for the BAFTA her slot was probably taken by Maggie Smith who is a favoraite in the BAFTA and between Smith and Rampling I think Oscar voters will go for Rampling since her film is a lot more visible than Smith's.

I really hope the Mad Max and The Martian do really well in the Oscars though. Mad Max took a hit this week while The Martian was redeemed somewhat in the Globes (Comedy because I don't understand the Globes) but if it wasn't for their genre's both would be much stronger coming into the nomations.

Wishful thinking is that Alicia Vindaker gets nominated for Ex-Machina over The Danish Girl. I saw both and her Ex-Machina performance thrumps that of The Danish Girl.

Actally I hope The Danish Girl gets completley snubbed :P

Mole said:

I don't think she'll have a problem getting nominated. But I remember the last time a French veteran in an acclaimed art film went up against a young blonde ingenue, and, well: 

Her win was never in question. I do like Jennifer Lawrence and loved The Silver Linings Playbook but I actually thought she was the weakest in that movie for some reason.




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0
 01.12.2016 1:14am


Lexx
I know how they work



shooter_mcgavin said:

 (Comedy because I don't understand the Globes)


The studio didn't think it would make it against the competition in Drama, so they submitted it for Comedy instead.  The HFP only cares about getting big movie stars to show up, so they gave them the nomination, and later, the win.


I loved The Martian but I feel like the Golden Globe win has an asterisk next to it, which makes me sad.




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0
 01.14.2016 4:44am
Thread Creator

shooter_mcgavin
Registered Member

Here are my final predictions

Best Motion Picture
1.  Spotlight
2.  The Revenant
3.  The Big Short
4.  The Martian   
5.  Mad Max: Fury Road
6.  Carol
7.  Bridge of Spies
8.  Room
9.  Brooklyn
--------cut------
10. Straight Outta Compton


Best Achievment in Directing
Adam McKay for The Big Short
Ridley Scott for The Martian
Alejandro G. Inarritu for The Revenant
Thomas McCarthy for Spotlight
George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road


Best Actor in a Leading Role
Bryan Cranston in Trumbo
Matt Damon in The Martiann
Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant
Michael Fassbender in Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne in The Danish Girl


Best Actress in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett in Carol
Brie Larson in Room
Jennifer Lawrence in Joy
Charlotte Rampling in 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn


Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale in The Big Short
Idris Elba in Beasts of No Nation
Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies
Michael Shannon in 99 Homes
Sylvester Stallone in Creed


Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Rachel McAdams in Spotlight
Rooney Mara in Carol
Alicia Vindaker in The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet in Steve Jobs
Jennifer Jason Leigh in The Hateful Eight


Best Original Screenplay
Bridge of SPies
Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Sicario
Spotlight


Best Adapted Screenplay
Carol
The Big Short
Room
The Martian
Steve Jobs


Best Animated Feature
Anomalisa
The Good Dinosaur
Inside Out
Minions
Shaun of the Sheep: The Movie


Best Forigen Langage Film
Embrace the Serpant (Colombia)
Labyrinth of Lies (Germany)
Mustang (France)
Son of Saul (Hungary)
A War (Denmark)


Best Documentary Feature
Amy
Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
The Hunting Ground
He Named me Malala
Where to Invade Next


Best Production Design
Brooklyn
Carol
Bridge of Spies
The Martian
Joy


Best Costume Design
Brooklyn
Carol
Cindrella
The Danish Girl
Crimson Peak


Best Make Up and Hair Styling
Black Mass
Mad Max: Fury Road
Mr Holmes


Best Cinematorgraphy
Brooklyn
Carol
The Revenant
Mad Max: Fury Road
Sicario


Best Film Editing
Creed
The Martian
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight


Best Visual Effects
Ex-Machina
Jurassic World
The Martian
Mad Max: Fury Road
Star Wars: The FOrce Awakens


Best Sound Mixing
The Martian
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Straight Outta Compton
Star Wars: The Force Awakens


Best Sound Editing
Jurassic World
The Martian
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens


Best Original Score
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Star Wars: The FOrce Awakens


Best Original Song
"Love Me Like You Do" from 50 Shades of Grey
"See You Again" from Furious 7
"Simple Song #3" from Youth
"Until it Happens to You" from The Hunting Ground
"Writing’s On The Wall" from Spectre


Best Live Action Short
Bad Hunter
Day One
The Free Man
Til Then
Shok


Best Animated Short
Bear Story
My Home
Sanjay's Super Team
We Can't Live Without Cosmos
World of Tomorrow


Best Documentary Short Subject  
50 Feet From Syria
Body Team 12
Minerita
My Enemy My Brother
Starting Point



Lexx said:

The studio didn't think it would make it against the competition in Drama, so they submitted it for Comedy instead.  The HFP only cares about getting big movie stars to show up, so they gave them the nomination, and later, the win.


I loved The Martian but I feel like the Golden Globe win has an asterisk next to it, which makes me sad.

I wasalways annoyed b y that I mean Alexander Payne's movies normally has the same tone and yet his movie can be placed in either drama or comedy.  I mean how can About Schmidt be in Drama while Nebraska is a comedy, heck even Jack Nicholson was shocked seeing About Schmidt in Drama.




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0
 02.29.2016 1:23am


Mole
Somebody loves ya.



This was a pretty wild and up-and-down year in terms of momentum and precursors, and many believe the top two prizes are still up in the air. But looking back at everything I think it's clear that one movie has the narrative, the star power, the technical acheivement, the arty pretensions, and the box office clout that makes the choice for the Academy easy. Yes, I believe we're about to see the first director to ever win back-to-back Best Pictures and Directors, and if this is who the Academy chooses to bestow that first distinction -- well, let just say it could be worse. 

Final Predictions:

Best Picture
The Revenant

Best Director
The Revenant

Best Actor
Leonardo Dicaprio

Best Actress 
Brie Larson

Best Supporting Actor
Mark Rylance

Best Supporting Actress
Alicia Vikander

Best Original Screenplay
Spotlight

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short

Best Cinematography
The Revenant

Best Film Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Original Score
The Hateful Eight

Best Documentary 
Amy

Best Foreign-Language Film
Son of Saul

Best Animated Film
Inside Out

Best Production Design
Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Costume Design
Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The Revenant

Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Sound Mixing
The Revenant




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0
 02.29.2016 5:43am
 (Edited on 03.01.2016 at 1:42am)

Lexx
I know how they work



With the exception of Mark Rylance winning, I was pretty happy with this year's winners.  Particularly, Spotlight for Best Picture, Ennio Morricone for Best Score, and all the awards Mad Max swept up.




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0
 02.29.2016 1:36pm


reido
(\/)(o,,,o)(\/)



Daaaaaaaaaaamn, look at all those (shiny, gold-chrome) Mad Max Oscars!




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