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Which Films Will Be Nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars
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0
 01.20.2012 10:30am
Thread Creator (Edited on 01.20.2012 at 10:36am)

shooter_mcgavin
Registered Member

 I am probably a little late into this since I normally discuss this after the Golden Globe nominations. However with this brand new site and uncertainty of Oscars this year (mostly because of the new rule change once again) I decided to delay this annual thread.

So here we are. The Oscars ... , the Superbowl, the Stanley Cup Finals, the World Series. the Wrestlemania of movies. Its a time celebrate great film making with the intriuge of egos and politics. But hey you can agree or disagree with the Oscars but there's no denying that it's a lot of fun to speculate.

Anyways before 2009 I would pick 10 films that has the best chance of making it as the five nominees. However in the last two years they changed it so that there will be 10 Nominees. Guess that didn't pan out well ... I guess they realized that having 10 nominees dilutes the lineup and even includes a couple of duds like The Blindside.

New Rule Change: So this year there can be 5 to 10 Best Picture Nominees depending on the number of votes in their super complex preferential voting system. So that's the change.

So I will now list down 13 films that have a decent shot at getting a Best Picture Nomination. So here we go:

[size=150]The Artist[/size]
Studio: The Weinstein Company
Director: Michel Hazanavicius (Relative Unknown)
Cast: Jean Dujardin and Berenice Bejo
Genre: Comedy, Romance, Silent (is that even a genre)

Nomnated For: Golden Globes (won), Broadcast Film Critics(won), National Board of Review,  Producers Guild Award, Directors Guild Award, New York Film Critics Circle (won), Screen Actor's Guild Award, BAFTA

Why Will it Get Nominated: The Artist is a silent era about Hollywood's silent era at a time when stars that shinned the brightest fizzeled during the talkies. The subject matter and  the black and whilte silent gimmick seems to have resonated with the film community in its relatable subject matter and style of film making. A lot of people appear to love it and there aren't really any haters in this film its easlity likable. Also this is under The Weinstein Company who are masters at the Oscar Campaign and has shown he could get an underdog to trumple a favoriate so there's no stupping this frontrunner. It's been nominated for the awards its been elegible for and won the Golden Globes, Braodcast Film Critics, and The New York Film Critics.

Why won't it get nominated: Oh it will and it may also win.

[size=150]Bridesmaids[/size]
Studio: Universal Pictures
Director: Paul Feig (mostly TV)
Cast: Kristen Wiig, Maya Rudolf, Melissa McCarthy, and Rose Byrne
Genre: Comedy

Nominated For: Golden Globes, American FIlm Institue, Screen Actors Guild, Producers Guild, and Writers Guild Awards

Why Will it Get Nominated: The movie of many suprises. First it becomes the boxoffice success story of 2011 making $160 Million in the US alone. Second its managed to pull a stunning Best Picture nominates from the aforementioned list above, and others for its Screenplay and Supporting Actress (Melissa McCarthy). Even the British gave it a lot of love earning a Screenplay and Supporting Actress Nomination from the BAFTA. If Oscars want to have populist film getting a Best Picture nomination, Bridesmaids is the best to fill that need.

Why Won't it Get Nominated. Raunchy Comedy about Women. Let's scratch out the words that could make this movie unnominatable for oscar tranditionalist "Raunchy Comedy about Women" .... yep and ouch!!!

[size=150]The Descendants[/size]
Studio: Fox Searchlight Pictures
Director: Alexander Payne (Sideways, About Schmidt, Election)
Cast: Goerge Clooney, Shaillene Woodley
Genre: Comedy, Drama, ... or a Dramadey

Nominated For: Golden Globes (won), Broadcast Film Critics, National Board of Review,  Producers Guild Award, Directors Guild Award, Los Angeles Film Critics (won), Screen Actor's Guild Award, BAFTA, American Film Institute, Writers Guild Awards

Why Will it Get Nominated: Like Alexnader Payne's Sideways critics just seem to love his work and The Descents (suprisingly from the trailers) is no diffrent. The fact that's being nominated in everything shows the board support this picture is getting and Dramadeys always seem to have a spot in the Best Picture lineup from the recent The Kids Are All Right to back when Lost In Translation was nominated in 2003. Academy voters rarley vote for pure comedies these days they need a dash of drama to mix things up ... The Descendants is it. Also it Stars George Clooney the most desireable man in Hollywood with him on the film you can't count this film out even if The Artist is the frontrunner. So it looks like its going to be a West Coast vs. East Coast thing where LA backed The Descendatns for Best Film while NY backed The Artist.

Why Won't it Get Nominated. It will especially with Clooney as it's star. The only fear is if Academy voters are less receptive to this film the same way Alexadner Payne's past works underperformed in Oscar Nomination time. About Schmidt missed Screenplay and Sideways missed a nomination fo the virutally locked Paul Giamatti. While a Best Picture nomination is certain the nominations it will get (besides Actor and Screenplay) might be another. BAFTA only gave this film 3 nominations ... despite a Best Film Nomination.

[size=150]Drive[/size]
Studio: Film District
Director: Nicolas Winding Refn (worked on a lot of European stuff I've never even heard of)
Cast:  Ryan Gosling, Carey Mulligan, Ron Pearlman, and Albert Brooks
Genre: Action, Crime

Nominated For:  National Board of Review, Broadcast Film Critics and  BAFTA

Why Will it Get Nominated: Essentially helmed as The Taxi Driver of this generation so that's a start and is considered one of the defining pictures of 2011. Reviews have been strong and boxoffice decent. It's also managed to secure a suprise Best Film Nomination from the BAFTA (and we know how that helped the Reader before). While it does lack Best Picture Mentions from it got Best Picture nominations from minor critics groups. Is that enough to propel this film.

Why Won't it Get Nominated. Ignored by the guilds, missed out on other key nomiantions, even almost sure thing Albet Brooks for his brillian performance has gone unnoticed by the SAG and BAFTA ... ouch. Can BAFTA really propel this movie? Also can Film District handle an Oscar campaign?

[size=150]The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo[/size]
Studio: Sony Pictures
Director: David Fincher (Fight Club, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Social Network)
Cast:  Daniel Craig, Rooney Mara, Christopher Plummer, and Stellan Skarsgard
Genre: Thriller

Nominated For:  National Board of Review, Broadcast Film Critics, American Film Institute, Producers Guild Awards, Directors Guild Awards, and Writers Guild Awards

Why Will it Get Nominated: The remake of the Sweedish Film (which I found to be average) is getting a bit of good traction, despite some early mentioned missing The Golden Globe signaled its death as far as Oscar goes. Thankfully the Guilds came to the rescue for this movie but stumbled again missing the BAFTA. in terms of buzz Dragon Tattoo is an up and down rollercoaster. Perhaps Davind Fincher and his film being beated in the final hour by The Kings Speech is enough sympathy for Oscar voters to bring im back in? As far as critics and boxoffice goes ... its done quite well not spectacular 70's in metacritic and could break 100 Million by the end of its run. Also notice most of the awards it got came and the beginning and end of the nomination phase of the Oscar Season? Looks like its peaking at the right time.

Why Won't it Get Nominated. Up and down rollercoaster buzz ... once nomination is announced where will Dragon Tattoo lie? Will the fact this is a remake be a problem? Last remake to do really well in The Oscars was The Departed but that film was a beast on its own. Are the guilds enough to propell this for a nomination?

[size=150]The Help[/size]
Studio: Tochstone Pictures
Director: Tate Taylor (Relative Unknown Again)
Cast:  Viola Davis, Emma Stone, Octavia Spencer, and Jessa Chastain
Genre: Drama

Nominated For:  National Board of Review, Broadcast Film Critics, American Film Institute, Producers Guild Awards, Directors Guild Awards, Writers Guild Awards, Golden Globes, BAFTA, Broadcast Film Critics, Screen Actors Guild

Why Will it Get Nominated: The other boxoffice success of the summer ranking a good $140 Million in the Box-office. The reviews have been solid and the average movie goes seems to have been falling in love with it. Essentially it's this years Seabiscuit or Forrest Gump ... that feel good summer boxoffice hit. And it has not gone unnoticed, its been nominated by virtually every awards group and seen as the "actors'" film wining Best Ensemble awards left and right. Considering Actors make up the largest voting bloc in the Oscars, this will help their cause.

Why won't it get nominated: It probablly will the average folk love this movie and Oscar voters tend to side with the populist more than the critics (who like the movie but have not shown much love for it).

[size=150]Hugo[/size]
Studio: Paramount Pictures
Director: Martin Scorsese (Taxi Driver, Goodfellas, Raging Bull, The Departed)
Cast:  Ash Butterfield, Ben Kingsley, Sasha Baron Cohen, and Chole Grace Moretz
Genre: Fantasy, Family

Nominated For:  National Board of Review (won), Broadcast Film Critics, American Film Institute, Producers Guild Awards, Directors Guild Awards, Writers Guild Awards, Golden Globes, Broadcast Film Critics

Why Will it Get Nominated: No one knew what to make of this movie when it first came out. A Fantasy Film? By Martin Scorsese? Then reviews have been possible but still no one knew what to make of it in terms of Oscar. Then right off the bat NBR announce its winner for Best Film and Best Director going to Hugo and Scorsese you knew this film was serious. It also managed to get Golden Globe Nominations (winning Best Director) and other awards. Scorsese was also contantly in the running he was able to garner runner up status or win the Best Director prize with some major critics groups (like the National Society of Film Critics).

Why won't it get nominated: Genere?!?!?  Though Chances look good but it did miss a SAG Nomination for Ensemble and missed a BAFTA nomination for Best Film (though Scorsese was still nominated for director and got 8 Technical Nods) sounds similar ... if it does think of The Dark Knight. Diffrence is I guess is that we now have a field of more than 5 BP nominees I think this is in.

[size=150]The Ides of March[/size]
Studio: Sony Pictures
Director: George Clooney (Good Night, and Good Luck)
Cast:  Ryan Gosling, Evan Rachel Wood, Philip Seymour Hoffman, George Clooney, Marisa Tomei, and Paul Giamatti
Genre: Political Thriller

Nominated For:  National Board of Review,  Producers Guild Awards,Writers Guild Awards, and Golden Globe Awards

Why Will it Get Nominated: Wow!!! This movie just wont go away. Reviews are solid and well as the box-office but ,in traditional terms, should not be strong enough to get this much buzz. Yet it did ... I guess it goes to show how much pull Geroge Clooney has in this inudstry. Generic Thriller aside the question now is, does is this picture stubborn enough to make it even as a Best Picture Nominee? The nominations does show it has supporters.

Why Won't it Get Nominated: Just doe not feel like a BP Nominee reviews and boxoffice have been solid, but feels like an almost ran. Plus they can reward Clooney with a Best Actor oscar while overlooking Ides of March completley.

[size=150]Midnight in Paris[/size]
Studio: Sony Picture Classics
Director: Woody Allen (Annie Hall, Hannah and Her Sisters, and Manhattan)
Cast:  Owen Wilson, Marion Cortillard,
Genre: Comedy, Romance

Nomnated For: Golden Globes, Broadcast Film Critics, Producers Guild Award, Directors Guild Award, Writers Guild Awards, Screen Actor's Guild Award, and American Film Institute

Why Will it Get Nominated: It only took 3 decades but Woody Allen's film is back in the Oscar Race and who would have thought a light harted fantasy driven romantic comedy would do the job. But yeah its already secured itself as a Best Screenplay Favoriate. It's done decenly in the boxoffice but considering the scope it's still considered a hit. People who have seen it love it and Oscar Voters were just waiting for a chance to honnor Woody Allen again.

Why won't it get Nominated: Is it too light hearted to be a contender?

[size=150]Moneyball[/size]
Studio: Sony Pictures
Director:  Bennett Miller (Capote)
Cast:  Brad Pitt, Jonah Hill, and Philip Seymour Hoffman
Genre: Sports Drama

Nomnated For: Golden Globes, Broadcast Film Critics, Producers Guild Award, Writers Guild Awards, Award, and American Film Institute

Why Will it Get Nominated: If George Clooney is the #1 Man in Hollywood next up is Brad Pitt and Moneyball is his dream project. Quality wise it exceeded expecations and its getting rave reviews from critics. The baseball sports drama is not your typical Oscar subject matter but the critical rally has helped its cause. Awards group also love the movie, New York Film Critics gave this plenty of love by praising the acting and screenplay ... even award groups are recognizing Jonah Hill (of all people) for his supporting work so it shows this film has support accros the board.  Best Actor will be heated contest its going to be Pitt vs. Clooney ... the Best Actor battle of the Hollywood Powerhouses.

Why Won't it Get Nominated: Is there enough passion for this film? It Missed a few key award groups like the NBR, Directors and Screen Actors Guild for Ensemble. Is that enough to deter this film Oscar chances?

[size=150]Tiker Tailor Soldier Spy[/size]
Studio: Studio Canal
Director:  Thomas Alfredson (A lot for forigen stuff)
Cast:  Gary Oldman, Toby Jones, Mark Strong, Tom Hardy, and Colin Firth
Genre: Spy Thriller

Nomnated For:  BAFTA

Why Will it Get Nominated: This is the strenght of the BAFTA and Critical Response alone. Critics love the movie its metacritic is at the mid 80's. In the BAFTA this movie got the 2nd most nominations just behind the heavily favoried The Artist. Plus Gary Oldman is due for a nomination, perhaps if voters like him enough it could also propel this film to get a Best Picture Nomination. Long story short, the British love this movie but Amerian Award groups have been apprehensive to recognize this, so The British need to give all the love they have in the world for this movie to get nominated.

Why Won't it Get Nominated: Besides BAFTA the film is all but ignored minus some minor critic groups (sad really I thought this move was really good alibet  confusing). Also despite love from critics, the audience do not like the movie, the metacritic user rating is pretty abysmal and the 2nd weekend boxoffice took a big drop. We all know Oscar voters are a unhappy medium of critics and regular audience, where will they side for Tinke Tailor Soldier Spy?

[size=150]Tree of Life[/size]
Studio: Fox Searchlight Pictures
Director:  Terrance Malick (The Thin Redline, The New World)
Cast:  Brad Pitt, Jessica Chastian, and Sean Penn
Genre: Drama, Religion (pending one one's interpretation :P)

Nomnated For:  National Board of Review, American Film Institute, Braodcast Film Critics, LA Film Critics (Runner Up)

Why Will it Get Nominated: Pound for pound the Critical Darling of 2011, opened during June with strong critical support and ended the year as the #1 film in the consolidated critics top 10 list (from the criticstop10 site). It also started strong with nomination by the NBR, AFI, BFCA, and a lot of awards from major and minor critics groups alike espeically for diretor Terrance Malick. Speaking of which Terrance Malick lives up to the hype of having only one film per decade (this was supposed to come out last year), his films are rare so why not reward him when they got a chance ....

Why Won't it Get Nominated: ... but if they did than perhaps The New World should have gotten more than one nomination for its cinematography. Every awards group from the Golden Globe onwards (including the Guilds) have pretty much ignored this movie. When The Thin Redline was nominated the film was mostly ignored but the DGA nomination allowed it to have enough life to get a BP Nomination. Hard to say where this will fall but judging from the trajectory its falling hard quickly ... will passionaite voters rally for this film?

[size=150]War Horse[/size]
Studio: Touchstone Pictures
Director:  Steven Spielberg ( ... I am not going to name them all :P )
Cast:  Jeremy Irvine and Emily Watson
Genre: War, Drama

Nomnated For:  National Board of Review, American Film Institute, Braodcast Film Critics, and Golden Globes

Why Will it Get Nominated: The Sweeping Epic or the Family Film of the Season? No one really knows where to cateogize this but if its the former that this has oscar bait written all over it. Plus Speilberg directing it has given this film the initial publicity and boost it needed to kick star the Oscar and, for awhile ,it was working until The Golden Globe while it got a Best Picture Nomination but thats pretty much it. Still the movie spells sweeping epic and NY Times Critic AO Scott made the argument that this is the film Oscar voeters should go for a film that demands to be seen on screen and a homage to great cinema. Will he be right?

Why Won't it Get Nominated: Its push to a BP nomination seem to have ended in The Golden Globes. It even failed to get Directors Guild Nom (a group that worships Spielberg like a demigod) which was the group that propelled Munich to get a Best Picture nomination in the Oscars. Critics like the movie but not enough to embrace it, its only Best Picture win came from a minor critics group ... the North Texas Film Critic.

So that's what I have ... what do you think will get nominated for Best Picture .... here is mine

Locked In
1.  The Artist
2.  The Descendants
3.  Hugo
4.  Midnight in Paris
5.  The Help
6.  Moneyball

High Chance of Getting In
7.  The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo   
8.  Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Outside Shot
9.  Drive
10. War Horse
11. Tree of Life

Doubtful
12. The Ides of March
13. Bridesmaids




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 01.20.2012 3:41pm


Nelfichu
I've been there, hombre.



 I haven't seen Moneyball, but do you really think it's a sure-thing for a Best Picture nomination? Doesn't seem like it would be the Academy's thing. I agree with your other locked in choises, especially Hugo and The Artist. I haven't seen The Artist yet, but I thought Hugo was just okay.




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 01.20.2012 4:01pm


Catastrophe
I'm Catbug!



 I like this new 5 to 10 rule. I hated the 10 nods thing, the inclusion of some movies were almost insulting and felt like pity nominations; when there's less nominees and the dark horses get in it really feels like they earned their nominations.

As for this year, I'm figuring on..hmm..let's see:

The Artist
 The Descendants
Hugo
 Midnight in Paris
The Help

Those five I agree with, however I'm also going to include:

Drive
Tinker Tailer Soldier Spy
Tree of Life

The others I see no chance of them getting in, except for maybe, maybe The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.




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 01.20.2012 4:23pm


Onyx
Butts
Administrator



 As a baseball fan, I hope Moneyball ISN'T nominated. Never saw the movie, but the book it's based on is a bunch of crock and made Billy Beane into the most overrated GM in sports history.




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 01.20.2012 4:35pm
 (Edited on 01.20.2012 at 4:55pm)

Kal
yes



 On that list I've only seen Drive and The Artist. Both were great but the Artist was one of the most charming films I've seen in a long time, so hope that'll win. Drive was a bit more original and atmospheric though. I do hope Drive gets the cinematography award, beautiful imagery there.

I haven't seen the GWTDT yet, but the book was terrible, the swedish movie was bad.. I don't see how this can be good, competent though Fincher might be.

edit : oh wait no i saw Tree of Life. And I completely forgot everything about it. It was shit. Pretty shit, but still shit.




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 01.20.2012 4:45pm


Rhaegar
World Warrior 21007



 I need to see The Artist. I do hope Drive gets nominated, at least, even if it stands no shot at winning.

And also, FUCK The Help and DOUBLE FUCK Tree of Life.




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 01.20.2012 11:01pm


Fincher
Deep Water Horizon



 Bridesmaids and The Help were decent, and I didn't like The Ides of March.  Haven't seen any other Best Picture hopefuls yet.

As for who'll be nominated, all I can really do is parrot what I hear elsewhere.  The general consensus seems to be that The Artist and The Descendants are the big contenders, although Hugo is doing well, too.



Currently playing: Professor Layton and the Diabolical Box, Picross DS
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 01.21.2012 12:48am


Lexx
Terran Angel



 The only contender I've seen is Midnight in Paris, which I enjoyed more than a lot of other movies I've seen recently.  So I'd be happy if that gets the nom.  Beyond that I can only echo what the rumor mill is churning out: The Descendants, The Artist and Hugo for sure; The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, The Help, Moneyball and War Horse as maybe's.




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 01.21.2012 2:44am


Mole
Somebody loves ya.



 This year I've probably spent days of my life on Oscar blogs because that's how boring my job is, and now I'm gonna BREAK IT DOWN in a big post no one will read:

The Artist: Basically the far and away frontrunner, the one the smart ones have their money on. Also a likeable but not all that remarkable of a movie, so get ready for a lifetime of exhausting backlash against it for winning. Yes yes I know you don't like Forrest Gump, NOBODY FUCKING CARES. Predictions: Proabable wins for Best Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay. Definitely a Best Actor nom and a possible win, but this category is remarkably tight this year. More on this later, I say naively, knowing deep down that no one will read even half this post.

The Descendants: Getting a lot of traction as the second-place/possible spoiler for the title. But since before the movie came out I've been skeptical of its BP chances, for one reason: it's too humble and unassuming. A proper Best Picture winner needs to no tjust be good, but stand on the rooftops and proclaim, in the voice of God/Moses "HEAR ME ALL, FOR I AM AN *IMPORTANT FILM* AND YOU MUST VOTE FOR ME, SUCH THAT PEACE AND ORDER MAY BE RESTORED TO THE KINGDOM". Alexander Payne's movies simply rely on texture and nuance and the funny, gorgeous, tragic things about human nature to rely on such measures. This is why they are great, and why Payne will never win Best Director. Sorry dude. Predictions: Nominations for Picture and Director, and a win for Adapted Screenplay. Clooney is in the running, but he's got to fight it out with two others. I'm crossing my fingers for Shailene Woodley for Supporting Actress for being hilarious, piercing, and honest.

The Help: Just to get this out of the way, I'm probably never going to see this movie. I know there are arguments for and against it, and as a black person I am telling you right now that I don't care. I'm not going to sit through two hours of something I know I won't like out of obligation, when I could be spending that time listening to "I Wonder If I Take You Home" twenty times in a row.  All I know is that it made a lot of money and the concept seems taillor-made for old white people sensibilities, which means it is IN. Predictions: Noms for Picture and Adapted Screenplay. Probably win for Octavia Spencer for Supporting Actress, because that category is straight EMPTY this year. Viola Davis for Best Actress, because everyone loves her and there's no way Meryl wins her third trophy for this gross-looking Magraret Thatcher movie, right? ..right?

Hugo: Honestly I kind of have no idea why this movie is getting sweeping nominations. It didn't do much for me, probably due to my visceral hatred of 3D, but the industry seems intent on awarding it so whatever. All of my predictions for this are based entirely on seasonal nominations and not the actual movie, including Predictions: Noms for Picture and Director. But don't ask me why.

Midnight in Paris: Woody Allen made a delightful movie that everyone loved and made hella bank. What more do you need? Predictions: Best Picture and Director, second-place choice for Original Screenplay.

Moneyball: An solidly-built, adult drama made by respected-figures that performed well, it'll slide right on in. I'm getting tired of writing now so I'm running out of stupid things to say, but that doesn't matter because literally nobody is reading this far. Lollipops, whores! Predictions: Noms for Picture, Adapted Screenplay. Brad Pitt gets locked in a three-way for Best Actor.

The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo: An odd little question mark in the race, going from sure thing based on pedigree to no-hoper based on the tepid reaction to the actual film, to resurgent dark horse thanks to guild noms and better-than-projected box office. Hard to get a read even now, but I'll say Predictions: Noms for Best Actress and a host of technical noms, but misses out on Picture and Director.

The Tree of LIfe: So, this movie supposedly has everything against it in the race: It's too arty and inscrutable, the consensus to divided, released too early in the year, and on and on. But I suspect it has one thing going for it that no other contender has: a serious, committed base of supporters who see voting for it as a sign to Hollywood that this is the type of movie that needs to be celebrated and recognized. For that reason I"m making longshot calls of Predictions: Nominations for Best Picture AND Best Director, earning the same spot for the iconoclastic auteur previously given to David Lynch and Julian Schnabel.

And the rest: Drive gets a nod for Albert Brooks in Supporting. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy gets shut out of the majors, having to contend itself with making an awesome amount of money for a movie that feels like a logic puzzle. Bridesmaids gets a nom for Original Screenplay and  Melissa McCarthy because oh why not. War Horse gets nothing but technical spots. Billy Crystal is boring as fuck but I'm supposed to find him "charming" for some reason.

That leaves me with Best PIcture nominees for The Artist, The Descendants, The Help, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, and The Tree of Life. Best Director will recognize Michel I Will Learn to Spell His Last Name At A Later Date, Alexander Payne, Woody Allen, Martin Scorsese, and Terrence Malick. For acting, we for once have an actual race in Best Actor, where I don't think we'll see any surefire winner between George Clooney, Jean Dujardin, and Brad Pitt before showtime. Meanwhile the acress awards will go to the ladies from The Help, and Supporting Actor will go to Christopher Plummer for a movie no one will have heard of.

So here's the thing: To me at least, the movie that has the most going for it for Best Picture on paper is The Help. See above. I've been thinking since November that it's the most sensible choice to win, but the momentum now seems unstoppable in The Artist's favor. Given that, it wil probably win.

HOWEVER. My final prediction for Best Picture winner will not be set in stone until the night of the show and the Screenplay winners are presented. If The Descendats wins for Adapted Screenplay, The Artist will win the big prize. But IF Adapted Screenplay goes to The Help? Then throw out everything you've heard and get ready for the world-rocking upset when that motherfucking movie wins Best Picture. You can mark my words on that, and then thank me when you are counting your winnings on Monday morning.

I am exhausted, somebody please put a burger inside me.




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 01.21.2012 5:45am


Onyx
Butts
Administrator



 The only movie I've seen of the potential Best Picture nominees was Hugo. Which I adored, and it's both a fun family movie AND a love letter to classic cinema.

Also hope the girl gets a Best Supporting Actress nod, at least. She was great in that movie.




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 01.22.2012 4:45am
Thread Creator

shooter_mcgavin
Registered Member
Mole said:
The Artist: Basically the far and away frontrunner, the one the smart ones have their money on. Also a likeable but not all that remarkable of a movie, so get ready for a lifetime of exhausting backlash against it for winning.

I think it depends on how people precieve it now where the backlash could come from. If people are expecting a work of genius of brillant filmmaking then yes there could be a backlash. Though if people just see it as a charming melodramatic picture then its going to get a lot of love.

For me I love the movie but admit there was nothing masterful on how it was done. If I were a voter I would also probably give it a Best Picture Nominations, with a few techs and performance awards but not in directing or screenplay. It's just that the movie presented itself as an easy sell ... the silent gimmick added with a ton of cuteness and charm. The same reason why people love most musicals from the 50's and 60's, so there's nothing wrong with that.




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 01.24.2012 8:15am
Thread Creator

shooter_mcgavin
Registered Member

 My Final Predictions

Best Picture
1.  The Artist
2.  The Descendants
3.  Hugo
4.  Midnight in Paris
5.  The Help
6.  Moneyball
7.  The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo   
*predicting 7 Nominees*
8.  Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
9.  Drive
10. War Horse

Best Director
Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist
David Fincher for The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Alexander Payne for The Descendants
Martin Scoresese for Hugo
Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris
Alternative: Nicolas Winding Refn for Drive

Best Actor in a Leading Role
George Clooney in The Descendants
Jean Dujardin in The Artist
Michael Fassbender in Shame
Gary Oldman in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Bard Pitt in Moneyball
Alternative: Leonardo Dicaprio in J Edgar

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis in The Help
Tilda Swinton in We Need to Talk About Kevin
Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams in My Weekend With  Marilyn
Alternative: Rooney Mara in The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Kenneth Branagh in My Week With Marilyn
Albert Brooks in Drive
Jonah Hill in Moneyball
Nick Nolte in Warrior
Christopher Plummer in The Beginners
Alternative: Viggo Mortenson in A Dangerous Method

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Berenice Bejo in The Artist
Jessica Chastain in The Help
Melissa McCarthy in Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer in Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer in The Help
Alternative: Shailene Woodley in The Descendants

Best Original Screenplay
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Martha Marcy May Marlene
Midnight in Paris
A Seperation
Alternative: 50/50

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo
Moneyball
Alternative: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Best Animated Feature
Arthur Christmas
The Advantures of Tintin
Cars 2
Chico and Rita
Rango
Alternative: Puss in Boots

Best Forigen Language Film
In Darkness (Poland)
Footnote (Israel)
Omar Killed Me (Morocco)
Pina (Germany)
A Separation (Iran)
Alternative: Warriors of the Rainbow (Taiwan)

Best Documentary Feature
Buck
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Project Nim
Under Fire: Journalists in Combat
Alternative: Undefeated

Best Cinematography
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Tree of Life
War Horse
Alternative: Drive

Best Art Direction
The Artist
The Help
Hugo
Harry Potter and The Deathly Hallows, Part 2
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Alterntavie: Tree of Life

Best Costume Design
The Artist
The Help
Hugo
Jane Eyre
My Week With Marilyn
Alternative: Tree of Life

Best Make Up
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and THe Deathly Hallows, Part 2
The Iron Lady
Alternative: Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life

Best Film Editing
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Drive
Hugo
War Horse
Alternative: The Descendants

Best Visual Effects
Captain America: The First Avenger
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
Hugo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Tree of Life
Alternative: Transformers: The Dark of the Moon

Best Sound Mixing
Hugo
Moneyball
Super 8
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Alternative: The Adventures of Tintin

Best Sound Editing
Drive
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transfoerms: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Alterative: Hanna

Best Original Score
The Artist
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse
Alternative: Drive

Best Original Song
"Hello Hello" in Gnomeo & Juliet
"Lay Your Head Down" in Alberto Nobbs
"Life is a Happy Song" in The Muppets
"The Living Proof" in The Help
"Pictures in my Head" in The Muppets

Best Documentary Short Subject
The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement
God Is the Bigger Elvis
In Tahrir Square: 18 Days of Egyptâ??s Unfinished Revolution
Incident in New Baghdad
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
Alternative: Saving Grace

Best Live Action Short
Je Pourrais �tre Votre Grand-Mère (I Could Be Your Grandmother)
Love at First Sight
Time Freak
Raju
Sailcloth
Alternative: The Shore

Best Animated Short
I Tawt I Taw a Puddy Tat
La Luna
Paths of Hate
Sunday
Wild Life
Alternative: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore




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0
 01.24.2012 2:02pm


Mole
Somebody loves ya.
Mole said:

The Tree of LIfe: So, this movie supposedly has everything against it in the race: It's too arty and inscrutable, the consensus to divided, released too early in the year, and on and on. But I suspect it has one thing going for it that no other contender has: a serious, committed base of supporters who see voting for it as a sign to Hollywood that this is the type of movie that needs to be celebrated and recognized. For that reason I"m making longshot calls of Predictions: Nominations for Best Picture AND Best Director, earning the same spot for the iconoclastic auteur previously given to David Lynch and Julian Schnabel.



Also, SOOKIE FROM GILMORE GIRLS JUST GOT NOMINATED FOR AN OSCAR. THIS JUST HAPPENED.




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0
 01.24.2012 2:12pm
Thread Creator (Edited on 01.24.2012 at 2:33pm)

shooter_mcgavin
Registered Member

 Tree of Life was out of my Top 10 but I would not have suprised if it got nominated for Best Picture as it did. The biggest shocker was the inclusion of Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close which wasn't even in my Top 13 predictions. I thought the so-so box-office and bad reviews would have killed its chances. Hence a rule for The Oscars .... never underestimate Stephen Daldry Oscar Seems to love all his works (The Reader, Billy Elliot, and The Hours).

Sad to see Albert Brooks and Drive (only got one nomination) snubbed.

Also with the Best Picture Line Up + Nominations Tally here's how I think the rankings went

1. The Arists - 10 Nominations and 5 in Major Cateogires
2. The Descendants -  5 Nominations but got the ever so important film editing
3. Hugo - 11 Nominations (no acting nominations)
4. Moneyball - 6 Nominations (Acting + Screenplay + Techs) the lineup w/o a director slot
5. Midnight in Paris - 3 Nominations but big ones for Woody Allen

6. The Help - 4 nods with only 3 acting noms
7. Tree of Life - 3 noms - Director + Cinematograhpy. In a field of 5 nominees the film would have gotten the sole director slot
8. War Horse - All techs
9. Extremley Loud and Incredibly Close - One supporting actor nomination basically it's this year's Blindside

Personally if they just stuck with the 5 nominees it would have been better than having 9 (except Tree of Life which was a pretty cool addition).




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0
 01.24.2012 3:13pm
 (Edited on 01.24.2012 at 3:21pm)

Catastrophe
I'm Catbug!



 Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close? Did anyone even see that movie?

Other surprises:

Best Actor:
Demian Bichir in "A Better Life"

Supporting Actress:
Melissa McCarthy in "Bridesmaids"

Original Screenplay:
"Bridesmaids" Written by Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig

Original Song..Only 2 nominations? That's got to be a first. But nice to see one from The Muppets, though it's not the one I expected.

Curiouser and curiouser.




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